Today the monthly non-farm payroll report was issued, 18 days behind schedule. Only 148,000 new jobs were created, lowering the unemployment rate by 0.04%, which rounds up to lowering it from 7.3% to 7.2%. The consensus forecast was 180,000. The news media was gloomy about this and bond prices went up. However, I think the long term trends for employment are still bullish. Gavyn Davies wrote in the FT today where he cited the SF Federal Reserve study that I had cited last week. He mentioned that there is a definite trend of an improving labor market. He cited the …Read More
Tomorrow the BLS releases the monthly “Employment Situation Report”. David Rosenberg of Gluskin, Sheff and Macroeconomic Advisors said if no fiscal tightening had occurred in 2013 then the unemployment rate would be 6.0% not 7.3%. Rosenberg said monthly new job creation next year may be 280,000 instead of the recent average of 180,000. My opinion is that at this level, after subtracting 100,000 to 125,000 a month for population increase, in a year the unemployment rate would improve from 7.3% to 5.8%. At that level workers would feel more prosperous and buy more things creating a virtuous cycle where the …
Allan S. Roth wrote an article for Financial Planning magazine entitled “Calculating An Advisor’s Value.” The article claimed that five different components of intelligent planning decisions comprised the value brought by a smart financial advisor. According to Morningstar, planners can add the equivalent of 1.82% annual return to clients through these five components of what they call “gamma.”
I commented on the introduction and indexed of all five components (plus two additional items) in a previous blog post. In this post I am just going to comment on the third of the five, “Dynamic Withdrawals”, to which …Read More
So much of the world of finance and financial planning can seem so very complex, it is no wonder that may people felt relief when an index card with nine good financial habits got some buzz earlier this year after University of Chicago social scientist Harold Pollack made good on his assertion in an interview that you could fit all the financial advice you need on an index card.
While Pollack’s index card does offer specific investment suggestions, as Star Tribune columnist Chris Farrell notes, “Personal finance is nothing more than a dozen or fewer common sense money habits.” Committing …Read More