Archive - 2014

In yesterday’s post I mentioned an intriguing article by Doug Kass where he expected things to get worse in the EU in 2015 and that the crisis would result in a loss of confidence in the EU’s Central Bank led by Draghi which would result in rising global interest rates. This goes against my theory that a crisis creates a crowding-in phenomena where those who seek safe assets have no choice but to overcrowd into the lifeboats of sovereign debt issued by “print & pay” G7 countries that issue debt in their own currencies and the overcrowding ironically makes …

Today there were two advisors posting bearish articles. Doug Kass mentioned in his predictions for 2015 that the EU’s Central Bank led by Draghi might lose credibility and this would finally end the 30 year bond bull market and that Japan’s Abe would also fail to fix their economy and would resign. Then Peter Atwater ran a story about Greece possibly defaulting which he said would be a Bears, Stearns type of event.

I disagree. Yes, I am bearish, but I don’t think these two people are correct. The EU nations have a tremendous desire to make the EU work …